Original Notes
Reconstructed Lecture
Introductory
I missed Hitler (in L & FM) Surprises ahead
This war a bigger turning point than the last
after the last, we could still muddle along as before
power politics
unplanned economy
after this war — change or regression
∴ mechanization has gone further
the world is smaller
& more close knit.
Introductory

I must begin with a confession. When I wrote Last and First Men, I completely missed Hitler. I imagined many futures for humanity, but I did not foresee that particular eruption. Let this be a warning: there are always surprises ahead.

Yet now that we are in the midst of this war, I believe it represents a far bigger turning point than the last. After the Great War, we could still muddle along more or less as before—the same power politics, the same unplanned economy, the same assumptions about civilization. After this war, that will no longer be possible. We face either genuine change or catastrophic regression.

Why? Because mechanization has advanced so far, because the world has grown so much smaller and more tightly interconnected, that the old muddling-through is no longer sustainable. The forces we have unleashed demand a new kind of response.

The Meaning of Hitler
not a freakish phenomenon
inevitable in the circumstances
Germany after the last war
military defeat of Reich-proud nation
economic crisis
let down by the democracies
∴ social inferiority neurosis
+ clear view of the worst side of "civilization"
sense of wrongness of liberal culture
disgust with — liberalism
Christianity
materialism
rationality
The Meaning of Hitler

Hitler is not a freakish phenomenon, some inexplicable aberration of history. Given the circumstances, something like Hitler was almost inevitable.

Consider Germany after the last war: a proud nation, built on the myth of the Reich, suffered military defeat. There followed economic crisis—hyperinflation, then depression. The democracies, who had promised a new world order, let Germany down repeatedly. The result was what we might call a collective social inferiority neurosis.

But there was more. Germans also gained a peculiarly clear view of the worst side of what we call "civilization"—its hypocrisies, its failures. They developed a profound sense that something was fundamentally wrong with liberal culture. Out of this grew a deep disgust: disgust with liberalism's false promises, with Christianity's weakness, with materialism's emptiness, with rationality's pretensions.

Rise of Hitler
military failure
artistic "
social "
boundless ambition
sensed the prevailing subconscious disillusion
produced a new myth:
race cult — not sham internationalism
might — not sham love
unreason — not rationalism
pseudo-mysticism
death cult — individuals must sacrifice
scapegoat — Jews
Hitler clicked with Germany
with the German subconscious
they laughed at him — & followed him.
Rise of Hitler

Into this situation came Hitler—himself a man of multiple failures: military failure, artistic failure, social failure. But he possessed boundless ambition and, crucially, he sensed the prevailing subconscious disillusionment of his people.

He produced a new myth to answer that disillusionment. Against sham internationalism, he offered the race cult. Against sham love, he offered naked might. Against hollow rationalism, he offered unreason—a pseudo-mysticism that spoke to depths which reason cannot reach. He offered a death cult: the individual must sacrifice everything for the race. And he offered a scapegoat: the Jews, onto whom all resentments could be projected.

Hitler clicked with Germany—not with the conscious, rational Germany, but with the German subconscious. This is the terrible thing: Germans laughed at him even as they followed him. They knew, on some level, that it was all absurd—and they followed him anyway, because the myth answered needs that their conscious minds could not acknowledge.

The case of Italy was similar. And we must recognize that there is a world-wide fascist tendency—not confined to Germany or Italy, but arising wherever the old liberal order has visibly failed.

Analysis of "Liberal" Civilization
insincerity throughout
Theoretical — universal happiness by laissez faire
internationalism
The rule of reason, free speech
human brotherhood
Actual — slums, unemployed, inequality
nationalism, imperialism
"economic man", exploitation
unchecked individualism
summary: 1. nationalism
2. commercial exploitation
3. materialism
Analysis of "Liberal" Civilization

But if we are to defeat Hitler with more than military force, we must understand what was wrong with the civilization he rejected. And here we must be honest: there has been insincerity throughout.

In theory, liberal civilization promised universal happiness through laissez-faire economics, genuine internationalism, the rule of reason, free speech, and human brotherhood. A beautiful vision.

In practice, it delivered slums, mass unemployment, and grotesque inequality. It produced nationalism and imperialism, not internationalism. It reduced human beings to "economic man" and sanctioned exploitation. Its individualism was unchecked by any genuine sense of community.

Three things, in summary, characterized our civilization: nationalism masquerading as internationalism, commercial exploitation masquerading as freedom, and materialism masquerading as progress. Hitler saw through the pretense. His answer was monstrous—but the pretense was real.

How Meet Hitler's Challenge?
(a) by military resistance — but not enough
(b) with an Idea — (Nazism's strength is an idea)
something positive to fight for
a new order in Europe, & in the world
a new cultural ideal
not liberal individualism
not Nazism
a new synthesis
How Meet Hitler's Challenge?

How then shall we meet Hitler's challenge? Military resistance is essential, but it is not enough. You cannot defeat an idea with guns alone.

The strength of Nazism is that it is an idea—a myth that speaks to deep human needs. We must answer it with a better idea: something positive to fight for, not merely something to fight against. We need a vision of a new order in Europe and the world, a new cultural ideal.

This cannot be simply a return to liberal individualism—that is discredited. Nor can it be Nazism. It must be a genuine new synthesis: one that preserves what was valuable in liberalism while addressing its failures, one that acknowledges human depth without surrendering to barbarism.

Changes of Mental Climate
Try to see the large movement of culture
1. Liberal Democracy. Christian morality - no sanction
brotherhood, freedom, individual fulfilment
keyed selfishnesses, economic man
2. Socialism stressed community
kept liberal values, Christian brotherhood
3. Marxian Communism accepts economic man
disparaged the individual, exalted society
morality socially conditioned, solely
but tried to keep Christian values — in vain
4. Italian Fascism denies economic man
self abnegation, State cult.
5. Nazism denies economic man, & love
neurotic appeal, emphasis on virility, ruthlessness
pseudo mystical, amoral morality
right = what serves the race.
6. New synthesis needed
Changes of Mental Climate

Let me try to sketch the large movements of culture that have brought us here.

Liberal Democracy retained Christian moral language—brotherhood, freedom, individual fulfillment—but without any genuine sanction. In practice it produced keyed selfishnesses and "economic man."

Socialism tried to correct this by stressing community while keeping liberal values and Christian brotherhood. A noble attempt, but incomplete.

Marxian Communism accepted economic man as the basis of analysis, disparaged the individual, and exalted society. It claimed morality was solely socially conditioned, yet somehow tried to keep Christian values—an impossible combination.

Italian Fascism at least denied economic man, demanding self-abnegation in service of the State.

Nazism went further: it denied not only economic man but love itself. Its appeal is neurotic, emphasizing virility and ruthlessness. It offers pseudo-mysticism and an amoral morality where "right" simply means "what serves the race."

A new synthesis is needed—one that has yet to be born.

Federalism and the Three Great Problems
The three great problems, all interconnected
1 supra-national order — Federalism
2 social harmony — creative social planning
3 clarification of fundamental values
Aims of Federation
to prevent war
to turn human energy from armaments
to prosperity
& fulfilment of human capacity
to create the instrument of world-planning
Causes of War
1. armed independence of national states
2. economic imperialism, rivalry for markets
3. tribalistic passion
Federalism and the Three Great Problems

The world beyond Hitler—if there is to be one—must address three interconnected problems: first, the establishment of a supra-national order through federalism; second, the achievement of social harmony through creative planning; third, the clarification of fundamental values.

What are the aims of federation? To prevent war, certainly. But more than that: to redirect human energy from armaments toward genuine prosperity and the fulfillment of human capacity. To create, for the first time in history, an instrument for world-planning.

Consider the causes of war: the armed independence of national states, each a law unto itself; economic imperialism and rivalry for markets; and beneath both, tribalistic passion—the primitive loyalty to one's own group against all others. Federalism must address all three.

How Federalism Addresses War
1. Federalism abolishes armed nationalism
supra-national government
" " police force
" " citizenship
" " law
2. Federalism might abolish economic imperialism
if it does not abolish " "
federalism won't work
3. Federalism educates men out of tribalism
based on a will for intertribal cooperation
& supra-tribal loyalty
How Federalism Addresses War

First, federalism abolishes armed nationalism by creating supra-national institutions: a government above nations, a police force that enforces international law, a common citizenship, and a legal framework that supersedes national sovereignty in matters of war and peace.

Second, federalism might abolish economic imperialism—but let us be clear: if it does not abolish economic imperialism, federalism will not work. The competitive scramble for resources and markets will tear apart any merely political union.

Third, federalism can educate humanity out of tribalism. It is based on and fosters a will for intertribal cooperation and supra-tribal loyalty. People must come to feel themselves citizens of a larger whole, not merely members of a tribe temporarily in alliance.

Machinery of Federalism
Machinery of Federalism.
based on like-mindedness about social aims
dual vote
hierarchy of governments
common citizenship
federal control of — foreign policy
armaments
currency
economic organization
law?
justice?
education?
Possible Federations
1. USA + Britain + Dominions
2. Europe
3. Democracies of the World
4. Federation of Man
Machinery of Federalism

What machinery would federalism require? It must be based on like-mindedness about fundamental social aims—without that, any union will be fragile. There would be a dual vote: citizens voting for both national and federal representatives. A hierarchy of governments, from local through national to federal. Common citizenship, so that a French person in Germany or an American in Britain is not a foreigner.

Federal control would extend to foreign policy, armaments, currency, and economic organization. Whether it should extend to law, justice, and education is debatable—these touch on deep cultural differences.

What federations are possible? We might begin with the English-speaking peoples: the USA, Britain, and the Dominions. We might federate Europe—a dream that seems distant now but may not always be so. We might unite the democracies of the world. And ultimately, we must aim at the Federation of Man—humanity as one political community.

Creative Social Planning
Federal purists: federalism alone enough
end war, the rest will follow
Socialists: socialism first, then federate
capitalist states essentially cannibals
Solution: Federal Government must have economic control
to prevent autarky & economic imperialism
Positive planning needed — for plenty, for human welfare
(Stalin & Hitler have taught us)
contrast sponge and mammal
world-economic organization now vital
danger to freedom — robot world; dictatorship
Nazism has grasped the need for planning
but lost the goal of planning
Democracies have rudiments of the goal
but dare not plan creatively
or are prevented by effete ruling class
Creative Social Planning

There is a debate between federal purists, who believe that ending war will make everything else fall into place, and socialists, who insist we must achieve socialism first because capitalist states are essentially cannibals who will devour any federation from within. Both are partly right.

The solution, I believe, is that any federal government must have genuine economic control—the power to prevent autarky and economic imperialism, to coordinate resources for the common good.

Positive planning is essential—planning for plenty, for human welfare. Stalin and Hitler, for all their horrors, have taught us that planning is possible. Consider the difference between a sponge and a mammal: the sponge has no central coordination, each cell fending for itself; the mammal has integrated systems serving the whole organism. World economic organization is now vital if humanity is to function as anything more than a sponge.

But there is real danger here: the robot world, the dictatorship of planners. Nazism has grasped the need for planning but lost sight of the goal—human fulfillment. The democracies retain rudiments of the goal but dare not plan creatively, hampered by an effete ruling class wedded to the old disorder.

Re-statement of Values
need for a new democratic ideal & theory
aim — to make the most of individuals
as knowers-feelers-strivers
equality of opportunity
equality of freedom
equality of sacrifice
we accept the duty of sacrifice
(a) when needed
(b) when we can trust the goal
we need to have the call to sacrifice
but it must be voluntary, open-eyed, occasional
not imposed, blind, perpetual
if our rulers manifestly care for our freedom —
we will sacrifice our freedom at their bidding
Good = what the developed mind cannot but desire
knowing the facts
& not perverted
& what it desires is —
= fulfilment of individual human capacity.
Re-statement of Values

We need a new democratic ideal and theory. The aim must be to make the most of individuals—not as mere economic units, but as knowers, feelers, and strivers. This requires equality of opportunity, equality of freedom, and equality of sacrifice.

We accept the duty of sacrifice—but only when it is genuinely needed, and only when we can trust the goal. Human beings need to feel the call to sacrifice; this is something Nazism understood and liberalism forgot. But our sacrifice must be voluntary, open-eyed, and occasional—not imposed, blind, and perpetual.

Here is a paradox: if our rulers manifestly care for our freedom, we will willingly sacrifice our freedom at their bidding when crisis demands. Trust is the key.

And what is "the good" we are aiming at? I suggest this definition: the good is what the developed mind cannot help but desire when it knows the facts and is not perverted by circumstance. And what does such a mind desire? The fulfillment of individual human capacity—in knowing, feeling, and creating.

Rediscovery of the Good
Rediscovery of the Good
Catholics — Church interprets God's will
Puritans — individual conscience
Scientists — no morality — greatest pleasure
Liberals — " " " " ?
Socialists — community is good
Communists — "good" is what furthers social evolution
Nazis — "good" = what serves the Herrenvolk
Next ?
Rediscovery of the Good

We need to rediscover what "the good" means. Various traditions offer different answers. The Catholics say the Church interprets God's will. The Puritans say individual conscience is the guide. The scientists, in their official capacity, disclaim morality altogether—or reduce it to the greatest pleasure.

The liberals inherited a vague Christian morality without sanction. The socialists declare that community is good—social welfare the highest value. The Communists say "the good" is what furthers social evolution toward the classless society. The Nazis say "the good" is whatever serves the Herrenvolk, the master race.

What comes next? We need a new understanding of the good—one that combines the best insights of these traditions while avoiding their errors. One that is genuinely rational, genuinely social, and genuinely humane.

Who Can Lead Us?
not the present leaders — tied up with the old order
some may serve a temporary purpose (Churchill)
not the old-school-tie-financial class
not the proletariat
not the intellectuals
The "middle class" must lead — a broad middle class
∴ the middle class has power
the technicians
engineers, airmen, mechanics, artisans
the applied scientists
the teachers
the ordinary people
but they are slow to wake
a few have wakened — the more sensitive
the mass are still clinging to the old world
circumstances are not yet ripe
for the great awakening of the middle class
suffering will wake them
Who Can Lead Us?

Who can take us into the promised land? Not our present leaders—they are tied up with the old order. Some, like Churchill, may serve a temporary purpose in this crisis, but they cannot build the new world. Not the old-school-tie financial class, whose interests are wedded to the past. Not the proletariat alone, who lack the technical knowledge. Not the intellectuals, who theorize but cannot act.

I believe the "middle class" must lead—but I mean a broad middle class that includes the technicians: engineers, airmen, mechanics, artisans. The applied scientists. The teachers. The ordinary people who keep society functioning.

But they are slow to wake. A few sensitive souls have awakened, but the mass still cling to the old world, hoping somehow it will return. Circumstances are not yet ripe for the great awakening of the middle class. I fear that only suffering will wake them—suffering on a scale we have not yet experienced.

The Inter-War Period
The inter-war period
dominant mode of thought:
economic man — utilitarianism; "self-fulfilment"
appeal to "reason"
amorality (under cloak of liberal Christianity)
suppression of emotion
appeasement policies
The Inter-War Period

Consider the dominant mode of thought in the inter-war period—the years between 1918 and 1939. We assumed "economic man": that people are fundamentally motivated by material self-interest, that utilitarianism and "self-fulfillment" are sufficient guides to life. We made constant appeal to "reason"—as if human beings were rational calculating machines.

Beneath the surface, there was deep amorality, covered by the threadbare cloak of liberal Christianity. Emotion was suppressed, denied, forced underground. And in politics, this led inevitably to the appeasement policies—the belief that if we only gave Hitler enough, he would become reasonable and be satisfied.

We were wrong. The suppressed emotion erupted in the fascist movements. The denied depths of human nature found monstrous expression. We must learn from this.

Conclusion: Regression or Recovery
What was it that I missed?
not an individual but a movement
revulsion from civilization
" reason
" love
(in the popular mind)
& from insincere internationalism
eruption from the sub-conscious
irrationalism
self-abnegation
back to primitive values
a neurotic regression to infantilism
after failure on the adult level
next — either deeper regression
or recovery of adult mentality
Conclusion: Regression or Recovery

What was it that I missed when I failed to foresee Hitler? Not an individual but a movement: a widespread revulsion from civilization itself, from reason, from love—at least in the popular mind—and from the insincere internationalism of the post-war order.

What we have witnessed is an eruption from the subconscious: irrationalism, self-abnegation, a return to primitive values. It is, in psychological terms, a neurotic regression to infantilism—what happens when a personality (or a civilization) fails at the adult level and retreats to earlier, more primitive modes of functioning.

What comes next? Either deeper regression—a descent into barbarism from which recovery may take centuries—or the recovery of adult mentality, the achievement of a genuine new synthesis that addresses the failures of liberalism without surrendering to the darkness.

This war ends an age and begins a new one. What that new age will be depends on whether we can muster the wisdom and courage to grow up.